Each prognosis concerning tourism is subjective. Tourism is something affected by too many factors, a number of which being unpredictable. Take into consideration extraordinary situations like terrorist acts and crises. Yet, we can focus on some objective pieces of information to build predictions. First of all, we should take into consideration the prognoses of the World Tourism Organization (WTO). According to its experts, the crisis in the sphere of tourism will have short-term effects and will affect the sector’s development in 2009 only.
Minimal negative growth of about two percent is expected on a global scale.
I have several reasons to make an optimistic prediction. We have never had better conditions. I believe we experienced a real crisis in 2008, when several unpleasant events took place. The number of British bookings decreased nearly twice. We also experienced a decrease of the German and other traditional markets for the Bulgarian tourism product. We also had good news, like the overall positive growth. Bulgarian tourism will continue developing and 2009 is expected to be one good year.
I cannot say that Bulgaria has been affected seriously by the crisis in terms of tourism. You probably saw the number of tourists in each resort. Take for example the student holiday, Christmas and New Year’s Eve. All hotels were booked months in advance and until present we have registered no price increase. This means that we are only talking about a crisis, without such actually taking place. The first indications about the winter season show that we can expect more British visitors. A big number of the British travelers are expected to refrain from visiting the Alps and to select more inexpensive destinations like Bulgaria. there. The Greek prime minister reacted adequately and facilitated the proceedings of private businesses. Bulgaria should do the same.